What will happen with the USD?
Only few factors could contribute to the change the USD trend to decrease. We had only consumer confidence survey issued by University of Michigan in the end of the week. However, it didn’t turn to be a key point as it was only the revision of this index. And it’s quite low figures is the only reason why experts can not make any straight predictions concerning future move of the United States dollar.
Therefore we can suggest that the markets will be quite unstable next week and several important economic indices to be released will only contribute to this. The situation on Monday will be quite calm as we think. However on Tuesday we will have the figures of consumer sentiment of April which could contradict to the numbers already issued by the University of Michigan.
On Wednesday several important market moving indices (like GDP) are to be released. It is strange, but the experts forecast about 0.5 percent growth of this index in spite of the difficult situation occurred at the US housing sector, growing unemployment and decrease in services and manufacturing sectors. However this forecast can be quite changed by the Fed’s interest rates decision to be taken a bit later the same day. At the moment there is 74% possibility of 25 bp rates cut and 26% for no changes at all. This is more optimistic than the numbers we had some weeks ago, and the credits situation had improved a bit. The next data will be represented by ISM manufacturing. The payrolls we suggest will turn to be low again for the 4 time.
