The USD growth caused by the non-farm payrolls
Friday will bring us information of new non-farm payrolls release. And this fact caused a definite growth of the United States dollar. Moreover this fact accompanied by growing jobless rate and decreasing manufacturing ISM may easily make the traders to pay fewer attention to the current situation.
We suppose that we will experience another decrease of the employment level for the fourth time now. As for the market outlook the experts predict a 78K decline of the non-farm payrolls and highest point of the US jobless rate for the last 3 years. Besides the level of the consumer confidence has also reached the lowest point.
Therefore many experts think there is already a recession in the United States economy. As for the previous recession periods there were several waves of layoffs lasting at least for 10 months. In case we will have those situations appeared today then we are to expect more that only 4 moths of job losses. Moreover there were over the 300K layoffs – the largest monthly levels of the previous recessions. Therefore the 100K fall in the past month is not something surprising. On the other hand such numbers of the non-farm payrolls will slightly contribute to stop the USD growth.
The possibility that there will be no interest rate cuts in the June has caused the growth of the United States dollar since yesterday. And the fact that the current non-farm payrolls numbers turned to be quite greater that the data issued in March will not affect somehow the Federal Reserve decision as they will be able to consider new numbers before announcing their interest rates decision in the June. Considering other available data we can suppose there will be more growth of the USD and further decline of the Euro. As for the current data we have the manufacturing ISM quite greater than it was expected.
